Download Business Cycles: Fact, Fallacy and Fantasy by Sumru G. Altug PDF

By Sumru G. Altug

This booklet offers an outline of the fashionable conception and empirics of commercial cycles. Written by way of one of many pioneering authors during this box, it examines the idea of a company cycle and discusses replacement methods to modeling. Arguably, probably the most vital debates during this literature has been the problem of matching a company cycle to the information. of their unique contribution, Kydland and Prescott (1982) proposed the tactic of calibration as a manner of interpreting the results of a enterprise cycle version; but, even at its inception, this strategy got here lower than feedback from numerous assets. This monograph will study a few of these criticisms and speak about replacement ways which were recommend. extra commonly, it is going to speak about what lies forward for contemporary enterprise cycle thought.

  • Facts
  • Models of commercial Cycles
  • International enterprise Cycles
  • New Keynesian types
  • Business Cycles in rising marketplace Economies
  • Matching the version to the knowledge
  • Future parts for study

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Extra resources for Business Cycles: Fact, Fallacy and Fantasy

Sample text

Thus, according to this approach, cyclical fluctuations are viewed as the natural response of the economy to changes that affect individuals’ consumption or production decisions. However, if prices or wages are fixed or rigid or if there are other types of frictions arising from credit markets, then the policy implications of the RBC approach may not be valid and the economy may operate with high levels of unemployment and excess capacity over long periods. In this October 9, 2009 15:12 48 9in x 6in b808-ch03 Business Cycles: Fact, Fallacy and Fantasy case, government policies may be required to move the economy towards a full employment level.

This period also corresponded to the Great Depression. 1945–1971: The third regime is the Bretton Woods era, which corresponded to the post-World War II era of reconstruction and a resumption of global trade and capital flows. Early 1970s–present: This period features a floating exchange regime and a period of increasing globalization. Basu and Taylor [31] argue that considering such a breakdown allows for the analysis of the impact of different regimes on cyclical phenomena. It also provides a way to identify the importance of demand- versus supply-side factors or shocks and the role of alternative propagation mechanisms such as price rigidity.

Let N denote the number of countries, M the number of time series per country, and T the number of time periods. Let yi,t denote the observable variables for i = 1, . . , N × M , t = 1, . . , T . There are three types of factors: country • N country-specific factors ( fn , one per each country); region , where r stands for North America, Latin America, • R regional factors ( fr Africa, Developed Asia, Developing Asia, Europe, or Oceania); • the single world factor ( f world ). 7) 5 For recent studies, see, for example, Gregory, Head, and Raynauld [109] or Lumsdaine and Prasad [154].

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