By Michael A. Hiltzik
In the bestselling culture of The Soul of a brand new laptop, buyers of Lightning is an engaging trip of highbrow construction. within the Nineteen Seventies and '80s, Xerox company introduced jointly a brain-trust of engineering geniuses, a bunch of laptop eccentrics dubbed PARC. This awesome team created a number of huge thoughts that caused a technological revolution, together with the 1st computer, the laser printer, and the graphical interface (one of the most precursors of the Internet), in basic terms to work out those breakthroughs rejected by way of the company. but, rather than giving up, those made up our minds inventors became their rules into empires that noticeably altered modern existence and altered the world.
Based on wide interviews with the scientists, engineers, directors, and bosses who lived the tale, this riveting chronicle info PARC's humble beginnings via its triumph as a hothouse for concepts, and exhibits why Xerox was once by no means capable of seize, and finally make the most, the state of the art concepts PARC added. Dealers of Lightning bargains an remarkable examine the information, the innovations, and the participants that propelled Xerox PARC to the frontier of technohistoiy--and the company machinations that just about avoided it from attaining greatness.
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Extra resources for Dealers of Lightning: Xerox PARC and the Dawn of the Computer Age
Overconﬁdence has been documented in a variety of groups of decision-makers, including engineers (Kidd (1970)) and entrepreneurs (Cooper et al. (1988)). Tetlock (2005) discusses overconﬁdence in a group of professional experts who earn a living commenting or advising on political and economic trends, such as journalists, foreign policy specialists, economists and intelligence analysts. The vast majority of these pundits’ predictions seem to do no better than random chance. Even more directly relevant to the topic of this lecture is the paper by Ben-David et al.
6) This difference can be naturally called a (period 2) bubble and is a result of fluctuating differences of opinion and future opportunities to trade. In order to model a bubble resulting from differences in beliefs and restrictions to short selling, it suffices to consider three periods. 2, we need two periods in which an asset pricing bubble can potentially occur. For this reason, I consider four periods, but as I hope it becomes transparent, the reasoning in period t = 1 duplicates exactly the argument we used for period 2 above.
Rational investors understand the advisors’ motivations and “de-bias” the advice, but naïve investors take advisors’ recommendations at face value. Although the presence of old fogeys tends to depress prices of the assets related to the new technology, when there is a sufficient number of naïve investors guided by tech-savvies, the biased advice overcomes the effect of old fogeys and induces over-optimism among investors. 4 EXECUTIVE COMPENSATION, RISK-TAKING, AND SPECULATION Although our discussion until now has been mainly concerned with the behavior of individual investors, corporations have played a central role in recent bubbles.